We took a quick stab at the Islanders’ opening-night roster not long ago and it’s not as if much has changed since then. The Isles haven’t added anyone, there are still unsigned free agents who could fit what the Isles need and those big-talent RFAs are all still without contracts.
But time’s a wastin’. So with just about six weeks until training camp begins, we thought it was time to dig in on what the 2019-20 Islanders could look like, from the top forward line on down to the potential call-ups from ECHL Worcester to AHL Bridgeport. Let’s get going:
Projected lines
Anthony Beauvillier-Mathew Barzal-Jordan Eberle
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Anders Lee-Brock Nelson-Josh Bailey
Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck
Michael Dal Colle-Tanner Fritz-Leo Komarov
Tom Kuhnhackl
Injured reserve: Andrew Ladd
Why we see it this way: Lee worked well on that top line with Barzal and Eberle down the closing stretch of the regular season and into the playoff sweep of the Penguins, though from a scoring standpoint it was more about the Barzal-Eberle duo being reunited than that full line. With Eberle back for good, it stands to reason that the Barzal-Eberle show should continue from Day 1.
Beauvillier is the wild card here. He bounced around the lineup last season but played the most 5v5 minutes with Barzal and they had an expected goal-for percentage of 51.1 ((xGF and other numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick), decent enough to justify higher expectations from those two 22-year-olds. Lou Lamoriello striking out on adding a top-six winger means that Beauvillier, an RFA who’s still unsigned, has to take the biggest step forward of just about anyone on this projected roster. If he’s not a top-six regular, the Islanders will have problems.
Lee and Nelson were also a solid pair over the majority of the regular season, with an expected goals-for percentage just under 50 thanks to some superb save-percentage numbers and timely scoring. Lee-Nelson-Eberle was Barry Trotz’s de facto No. 1 line in terms of 5v5 usage much of the season, but this one with Bailey on the right would seem to set up as a consistent second line that will get plenty of minutes deployed against top opposition.
It’s hard to imagine that Trotz or Lamoriello will mess with the Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck line at least at the start of the season, provided Clutterbuck is fully healed from offseason back surgery. If not, Kuhnhackl makes the most sense to slide in; if Lamoriello or Trotz buck six combined decades of taking the simplest path, let us suggest a third line of Dal Colle-Cizikas-Josh Ho-Sang as a dynamic alternative. That’s provided Ho-Sang shows what he needs to in camp, but Cizikas and Ho-Sang have had some decent moments together in years past.
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The fourth line is a hodgepodge. Komarov and Fritz need to put some chemistry together quickly or Komarov, who benefited from finding a good connection with Valtteri Filppula early last season, will stick out even more than usual. The Dal Colle-Fritz tandem should work; if and when Ladd is ready to return, putting him with those two gives more pop to a bottom-six line than you would normally find.
Projected defense pairs
Adam Pelech-Ryan Pulock
Devon Toews-Scott Mayfield
Nick Leddy-Noah Dobson
Thomas Hickey, Johnny Boychuk
Why we see it this way: At this point, it’s hard to imagine the line combinations going any other way if Dobson sticks this season and no one is moved out. The Pelech-Pulock pair had its ups and downs — the ups coming through the back half of the regular season and during the Pittsburgh series and the downs coming early on and then late against Carolina. It’s not a true No. 1 pair but Trotz likes pairing a skater with 200-foot impact alongside a more stay-at-home type, so this one starts the season at the very least.
The same is true for Toews-Mayfield, though they won’t get third-pair minutes anymore. Toews showed an awful lot in his 46 game stint plus playoffs and Mayfield took some good strides, as well.
Leddy-Dobson doesn’t appear to be an ideal third pair — given how well he worked alongside Pulock two years ago, Hickey might be best suited to working in another high-caliber rookie — but Dobson isn’t going to sit and neither is Leddy if he’s still here when the season begins. Boychuk and Hickey are two of the most-liked players in the locker room and that’s $8.5 million against the cap as extras, but there’s really no other way to chop this group up at the moment.
Projected goalies
Semyon Varlamov
Thomas Greiss
Why we see it this way: Not many options! Only three other teams have two goalies on the roster 31 and over and there’s no real competition from the group of goalies the Isles will bring to camp. Greiss was able to turn things around and play as well as Robin Lehner did last season, so don’t assume he’s the clear backup here. Camp will decide who gets the nod out of the gate. But given Varlamov’s four-year, $5 million per deal, one has to assume he gets the majority of the starts this season.
Ryan Pulock (Bill Streicher / USA TODAY Sports)
Projected power-play units
Toews-Barzal-Eberle-Lee-Nelson
Leddy-Pulock-Beauvillier-Bailey-Dal Colle
Why we see it this way: New assistant coach Jim Hiller likely has some fresh ideas for a group that will essentially be the same as last season, but since he’s not sending over his notes, we’ll go with what worked in the playoffs for the top unit.
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Toews worked quite well as a distributor and his quick-release wrist shot made him an ideal QB. Many would love to see Pulock and his big shot on the top unit, but with Barzal preferring to work the half wall on his off-hand side — the spot where Pulock would need to be to have any impact — it’s hard to see that working. Eberle continuing his goal line spot, Lee in his office and Nelson as the off-wing shooter make the most sense.
The second group has room to grow and use some different schemes and personnel, given the relative lack of depth the Isles have up front. Dal Colle as the net-front body is a plus, with Beauvillier in the bump-out shooter’s spot in the slot — Clutterbuck was there for much of last season but it’s hard to imagine he’s still the best option given his health. Leddy functions more as another passer here than a QB and Pulock, the only righty, can fire away from the Ovechkin spot as long as the other four are moving around and providing some sort of threat.
Even without much new blood, this can still be a better special teams unit than its No. 29 ranking last season.
Projected penalty-kill units
Cizikas-Clutterbuck-Pelech-Mayfield
Fritz-Komarov-Leddy-Pulock
Nelson-Bailey
Why we see it this way: The Cizikas-Clutterbuck duo is a lock, given the pair’s long history together and the loss of Filppula from the PK forward rotation — Trotz surely wants some familiarity in his first two guys over the boards. Pelech and Mayfield became the No. 1 PK defense pair when Boychuk was out with injury last season and also worked well.
Things get a little unsure after that, though. Leddy hasn’t PKed more than a handful of games in any of his nine NHL seasons, but if Dobson is in the lineup, Leddy will be pressed into duty as it’s hard to see Trotz putting Toews in all situations just yet. Pulock is a PK regular, so that may help ease whoever’s on the left side.
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Up front, it’s good to be reminded that, under Trotz, everyone has a role; if Fritz is to win the 4C job, it comes with PK2 responsibilities. His ability to work with Komarov is important, since Leo is going to be a PK regular. Nelson and Bailey have worked into the rotation before, as have Beauvillier, Kuhnhackl and Martin, so there are options beyond the first four forwards.
That was the “easy” part. Now, let’s try to determine who will fill what role in Bridgeport. Brent Thompson used his personnel in very strict ways last season; lots of younger prospects were scratched at various times, especially among the crowded defense. With an even younger group this season, how things start will almost certainly not be how things are a month into the AHL season.
So, armed with the knowledge we have now, let’s take our best shot:
Projected Bridgeport lines
Kieffer Bellows-Otto Koivula-Oliver Wahlstrom
Matt Lorito-Cole Bardreau-Steve Bernier
Nick Schilkey-Mason Jobst-Josh Ho-Sang
Travis St. Denis-Bobo Carpenter-Ross Johnston
Scott Eansor, Arnaud Durandeau
Why we see it this way: That top line is more hopeful than realistic, given that Thompson has rarely, if ever in his six seasons as Sound Tigers coach, used three young prospects on the same line. But those are the three most promising young players at each forward spot, so maybe it happens this season? We can wish at least. The Bellows-Wahlstrom combo on the wings should be a priority for the Isles organization even though both are shoot-first types. Koivula, coming off a 21-goal pro debut, doesn’t shy away from shooting either, so this could either be an incredibly dynamic top line or one with three young guys going in three different directions.
The second liners are the three senior players at each position — Bernier signed an AHL deal, so he’d need to sign a new deal to be called up. Bardreau comes from Lehigh Valley, where he struggled through a couple of injuries in his four seasons with the Flyers affiliate but is a solid two-way center. Lorito missed most of last season with an injury, but posted good numbers when healthy and is the second-oldest player on the projected roster. He’s also played center quite a bit in case some of the newer center additions don’t pan out immediately.
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Schilkey and Jobst are old Ohio State teammates, with Schilkey showing some decent skill and jam in two seasons with Charlotte, the Hurricanes’ affiliate. Jobst is 25 but in his first pro season, so he’ll be one to watch. Ho-Sang will almost certainly get top-line minutes if he earns them and should be first in line for a call-up if the Isles need a winger (or any forward, really), but that is TBD for him at this point.
St. Denis is another established Bridgeporter who can score. Johnston hung around the Isles all last season but with the logjam on defense it’s hard to project him being the permanent 14th forward while playing as little as he did. Carpenter may be a quick study at center and earn some more minutes quickly.
Durandeau surely won’t be a scratch given his status as a first-year pro. If he can’t crack this top 12 he’d go to Worcester. Eansor hasn’t been healthy much the past two seasons, but he’s a gamer.
Josh Ho-Sang (Timothy T. Ludwig / USA TODAY Sports)
Projected defense pairs
Sebastian Aho-Grant Hutton
Mitch Vande Sompel-Kyle Burroughs
Parker Wotherspoon-Bode Wilde
Seth Helgeson
Why we see it this way: With the potential (and likely) addition of Wilde, Bridgeport can finally have the same left-right balance that Trotz prefers. Aho played some on his off-side last season and won’t have to now; one could project down the road that Aho and Wilde would be the top pair, but the bigger, older Hutton makes for a good partner for Aho at the moment.
Burroughs is the likely captain this season and is as steady as ever to complement Vande Sompel’s skating. Wotherspoon has bounced around in a role, but starting off with the offense-minded Wilde seems wise. Helgeson as the senior member of the crew will get his minutes.
Projected goalies
Christopher Gibson
Jared Coreau
Linus Soderstrom
Why we see it this way: Gibson is entering his fifth season in the organization and still hasn’t really advanced beyond emergency call-up, so this would seem to be his make-or-break year. The Isles signed Coreau as insurance for Soderstrom, who likely won’t be ready for a backup role in the AHL right away. It’s Gibson’s net for the time being, but no one here seems to be a legitimate threat to make any waves at the NHL level.
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More depth forwards
Ryan Hitchco*ck
John Stevens
Jeff Kubiak
Yannick Turcotte
Kyle MacLean
Nic Pierog
Erik Brown
Kubiak, a big center, posted 9-12-21 in 54 games for Bridgeport last season and is certainly in the mix for a job. Same for Hitchco*ck, who had 49 points in 46 games with Worcester last season. Stevens was hurt most of the year but has been a good bottom-six center option in his two pro seasons with the Sound Tigers. Turcotte is a tough winger who’s been in Worcester the last two years. Brown signed after a good showing in prospect camp and, at 23, could give some depth on the wing in his first pro season. Pierog had 32 goals for Manchester of the ECHL in his first pro year. And MacLean, 20, is just getting started.
More depth defensem*n
David Quenneville
Ryan MacKinnon
Justin Murray
Mike Cornell
Quenneville had a decent first pro season with Worcester and will be battling for a spot on Bridgeport’s crowded D corps. MacKinnon also had a nice first full pro season in the ECHL. Murray signed as a free agent after prospect camp — the LHD was a teammate of Wilde’s in Saginaw of the OHL last season. And Cornell, 31, is in his third season in the organization, a veteran heavyweight.
Overall, the organization is far deeper than it’s been in recent years. That may not show at the highest level, with a team that looks very much the same heading into next season as it did last year. But Bridgeport will be younger and more dynamic, likely with two highly touted teenagers on its roster. There may not be much battling for spots in camp, but there will be a load of young players eager to mix things up.
(Top photo: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)
