The Atlanta Braves system has been impacted by promotions in the last few weeks, but there is still plenty to watch. Adam Maier and Lucas Braun have dominated the lower levels, while the fun story of the year seems to be infielder David Fletcher making a real conversion to being a knuckleball-throwing starting pitcher. On the offensive end Isaiah Drake had a breakout game, though he’s yet to put it all together for any period of time.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 29-34, 6th in IL West (14 GB)
Overall a bit of an odd week for the Stripers, as the offensive numbers as a whole look quite impressive but are bolstered by two huge outbursts with otherwise minimal production. The Stripers scored double digit runs in back-to-back games then didn’t score more than three runs in any other matchup losing all four of those games. Still the overall numbers for a lot of the team’s emergency depth looked solid, with four players OPS-ing above 1.000. Andrew Velazquez was really the standout to me, as he has really hit a bit of a power surge this season and had six extra base hits last week and a five RBI game.
Pitching was likewise a mix of really good and really bad. Given the promotion of Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach, plus AJ Smith-Shawver on the injured list, the pitching really for the entire system is down at the moment and that’s readily apparent at the upper levels. Dylan Dodd shifted to a bullpen role last week when Waldrep was promoted and there was something to like there as his fastball velocity ticked up, but he was forced (?) back to starting for Gwinnett this week and got shelled. At this point the two starters to really watch out for are Allan Winans and Bryce Elder.
Winans was mysteriously absent the last couple of time the Braves rotation was in question, but he is back pitching regularly again and started off June with a gem of an outing. Winans allowed only one hit over his six innings of work, with that shutout performance being enough to earn him International League Pitcher of the Week. Bryce Elder is doing quite the job of showing just how large the gap between Triple-A and the Major Leagues is right now, as he has dominated both of his June starts. While he didn’t quite reach the peak off 11 strikeouts he had last week he came fairly close, going six innings with only an unearned run allowed and striking out nine batters. Elder’s inconsistent command has really been an achilles heel for Elder as he doesn’t have the stuff to survive when his slider isn’t hitting spots, but in recent outings he has started to return to some of the form we saw last season. There were certainly mistakes, but Elder was back towards burying that slider in the lower half of the zone and got 11 whiffs from the Durham Bulls on that pitch alone.
Series Preview
Gwinnett now returns home to take on the Nashville Sounds, who are the Triple-A affiliate of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Sounds are not unlike the Stripers in not really possessing many of the Brewers top prospects, but they differ in that they are actually a good team sitting at 34-29. The Sounds have the second-lowest team ERA in the International League, with 22 year old Carlos Rodriguez as their top pitching prospect. Rodriguez has had struggles this season, mostly due to his command, but the 6th round JuCo draftee from 2021 has had an impressive professional career to this point and still maintains high strikeout rates with a 24.5% strikeout rate. Rodriguez works with a deep mix of pitches, and has a 2.83 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate since the start of May.
Nashville’s top hitting prospect is Tyler Black, and Baseball America’s number 59 overall prospect has lived up to the hype this season. Black had a brief and unsuccessful stint with Milwaukee, but in Nashville has been a force to be reckoned with with 9 home runs and a 13.4% strikeout rate in 47 games. Black’s 126 wRC+ is one of the best marks on the team, but sits behind veteran outfielder Isaac Collins who has been the team’s best hitter this season. Collins is hitting .289/.402/.505.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 25-32, 3rd in SL South (7 GB)
2-4 last week
Nacho Alvarez is back in the lineup for Mississippi, a welcome sight after he missed a few games the prior week then missed the start of last week’s action. Nacho played throughout the weekend and notably had a three walk game. Mississippi as a team had their struggles last week as they only won two of their games, and it’s easy to see why given how much talent they have lost out of the pitching rotation. What’s good to see is life from Drake Baldwin, who has started to slowly round into form and led the team with 11 runs batted in last week. Baldwin’s .797 OPS from last week marks one of his best marks on the season, and the line drive contact has started to become far more consistent from him.
On the topic of the pitching that is kind of where the Braves lost some of their games last week, as the typically lock down squad didn’t really have any standout performances. The best of these games was the opener, when David Fletcher brought his knuckleball to Pensacola and allowed one run over six innings in a game the Braves would ultimately win thanks to a six run eighth inning. The fortunes reversed when Fletcher made his second start, however, as he allowed four runs on Sunday. One notable development from this Double-A roster is the absence of Hayden Harris, who has pitched only one time since May 27th and did not pitch at all last week. Harris has been one of the top relief arms in the system all season, but allowed three runs in 1⁄3 of an inning last Sunday and hasn’t pitched in a game since.
Series Preview
Mississippi will now take on the Rocket City Trash Pandas, the Double-A affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are a relatively weak farm system, but Rocket City is the best of their affiliates having both the top two prospects in the system including their only top 100 player. That player would be BA #91 Caden Dana, who has been dominant for the Trash Pandas this season. Dana’s strikeout rates have taken a bit of a dip as he has made the leap to Double-A, but overall he has been one of the better arms in the minor leagues with a 2.57 ERA. Dana hit some struggles towards the end of May, but is coming off of an eight inning, 10 strikeout performance and is scheduled to pitch in Thursday’s game. Dana’s main struggle this season has been an elevated home run rate, which won’t be a problem in Trustmark Park or against this Mississippi roster.
The Angels number two prospect by Baseball America is outfielder Nelson Rada, who the Angels pushed to Double-A as an 18 year old. That hasn’t been a successful move as Rada has been horrible, posting a 66 wRC+ against pitchers he isn’t advanced enough to handle yet. Rada is a massively talented prospect who is just a bit too in over his head, and though he had a three hit day and his first home run last week over his past few series he has a -4 wRC+ and a 36.4% strikeout rate. The best performer among Rocket City’s top prospects is #9 prospect Denzer Guzman. Guzman strikes out a bit too much, but the 20 year old shortstop has shown off some power with a .142 isolated power this season and overall has a 113 wRC+ since his promotion from High-A.
Rome Emperors
Record: 31-24, 1st in SAL South (+1 G)
Rome held on for dear life to take a split of last week’s series, as the offense hit a wall and even some of the consistent contributors struggled outside of a ten run performance on Saturday. Sabin Ceballos just couldn’t find the grass as he went 4-18 on his balls in play last week, but he made a bit more impact with his hits as he had three extra base hits. Ceballos has been a subject of scrutiny for his paltry power production this season, but I was impressed with the swings he took last week even if he didn’t have his best results. The focus for Ceballos is really tapping into that pull-side power, and though he hasn’t really been hitting the ball hard in the air overall the quality of contact is increasing as the summer months swell.
Of course EJ Exposito had a stellar week, posting an OPS above .900 once again as his two extra base hits were critical parts of Rome wins. Exposito has been steadily keeping those strike rates on the decline and if he can continue to do that he may have a case at reaching Double-A. Unfortunately that Double-A infield does have quite a bit of depth with especially Alvarez, Keshawn Ogans, and Cal Conley all being guys the Braves want to get playing time so Exposito might yet have more chances to lead a Rome offense. Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. is the one who has really hit a stopping point as his strikeout rates have ticked up with out us really seeing the power increase as we had hoped it would throughout the season.
Welcome back to Rome Luis Vargas. Vargas may be one of the quiet breakout players of the season, as the 22 year old is showing off increased velocity and suddenly the two-pitch mix has him dominating. Last week Vargas struck out seven across six scoreless and walk-free innings, and though I am skeptical of him as a starter long term we are certainly seeing a major league quality arm. Jhancarlos Lara and Lucas Braun are still the top two prospects from this roster in my opinion, though it seems more likely now Lara is a reliever long term. He showed some improvement last week despite an overall poor line, as the first time through the lineup he really shut down the Dash offense. Braun has just been a consistent arm for the team that has been better than his overall numbers, and should get a push to Double-A soon.
On the other hand I haven’t really seen much out of Drue Hackenberg that has been impressive. The command, especially of his slider and curveball, just aren’t that good and while the raw shape of his pitches can be effective it’s not that useful if he isn’t throwing strikes. The one expectation from Hackenberg is that he would at least be generally on the edges of the zone, but he hasn’t done that enough this season. Blake Burkhalter looked solid in his return from the injured list with 3 1⁄3 innings of one run ball. I do think Burkhalter ends up as a reliever, but right now the Braves are going to prioritize getting him as many innings as they possibly can and the best way to do that is to just let him start for now.
Series Preview
Rome now heads to Bowling Green for the biggest series of the season, as they carry a one game lead over the Hot Rods in the first half division race. The High-A affiliate of the Rays, Bowling Green has a number of top prospects including two players on the Baseball America top 100. #40 overall prospect Xavier Isaac has been the premier power hitter in the South Atlantic League this year, leading the Hot Rods with 12 home runs and a .975 OPS. He is followed closely by Brayden Taylor, BA #60, who has 8 home runs and a .941 OPS.
Overall Bowling Green has a high-powered quartet of hitters who have helped the team end up third in home runs and OPS in the league, but one of their most dominant players is non-top 30 arm Trevor Martin. Martin has been the leader of the starting rotation with a 2.97 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 63 2⁄3 innings this season.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 24-32, 5th in CAR South (12 GB)
4-2
Augusta played an exciting series against the Pelicans, with five of the six games ending by a margin of two runs or less. Of those the GreenJackets won four, squeaking their way into a series win behind some impressive pitching. Offensively they were led mostly by just scratching through runs and hoping for a handful of big performances. They got that from Isaiah Drake on Saturday, as he went crazy with two home runs and three hits as the GreenJackets ultimately won in walkoff fashion. Other than that, though Drake was barely a factor in the series and remains far too strikeout-prone to not be hurting the team at the top of the lineup. Jeremy Celedonio went deep a couple of times, and we’ll probably see that a lot from him this season as he is an older player with big power. No one else on the team really stood out, those were the only two guys with more than three hits from the entire lineup as the better players have now been promoted out and this team is really struggling for offensive talent.
This is less a problem for the pitching staff, as it seems every arm they run out this season is having great performances. The only player who really struggled last week was Garrett Baumann as he got BABIP-ed to death on the way to allowing seven runs. Adam Maier continues to put up consistently strong performances, and he struck out seven batters over 6 1⁄3 innings in his appearance last week. The standout pitching performance came from Adam Shoemaker, who was an absolute force in relief of Baumann. Shoemaker struck out eight of the 12 batters he faced in three scoreless innings, helping hold down the fort for the GreenJackets offense to make a comeback.
Series Preview
Augusta now heads to Lynchburg to take on a good Hillcats team with two top 100 prospects on it. Both #82 overall Jaison Chourio and #84 overall Ralphy Velazquez have had fantastic seasons for the Hillcats, with Velazquez being especially productive. The 19 year old has seven home runs and a 146 wRC+ this season, showing off the plus power that has many scouts more exciting over a first base prospect than you typically see. Then there is Chourio, brother of Jackson Chourio, who has a 143 wRC+ and has been the team’s leading on base threat with a .405 on base percentage.
Overall though the team’s numbers are somewhat riding the high of promoted players, having lost top performers Angel Genao (163 wRC+) and Matt Wilkinson in recent weeks. Wilkinson’s 71 strikeouts in 40 1⁄3 innings are a key reason the Hillcats rank third in strikeouts as a team this season, though it’s still a talented rotation led by BA’s #8 Guardians prospect Alexander Clemmey.
FCL Braves
Record: 6-19, 6th in FCL South (10.5 GB)
The FCL Braves only got in three full games last week, and they won one of those to actually improve their winning percentage somewhat. Still, no one cares at all about how many games this team wins as the most important development from last week was the return of Luis Guanipa from an injury. Guanipa went 3-6 as he still isn’t full back, getting removed early in both games, but he gives this FCL Braves team a jolt of excitement. On the pitching side the FCL Braves didn’t get appearances from either of their two arms, with Luis Arestigueta not making an appearance and Jeremy Reyes getting bumped to Augusta where he has yet to appear.
